Revenue Forecasting

The Forecasting module provides forward projections based on your actual Stripe subscription data — renewal dates, cohort retention, and trailing revenue trends.

MRR Forecast

Projects 3, 6, and 12-month MRR based on:

Trailing growth and contraction rates

Observed churn patterns

Renewal timing from billing_cycle_anchor and subscription interval

Cohort-based projection

Uses observed cohort revenue retention curves to project future revenue from current customer cohorts. Cohorts with known retention behavior produce more reliable projections than newly acquired cohorts.

Renewal Wall

The Renewal Wall shows the timing of upcoming renewals, weighted by ARR. It is especially useful for businesses with annual contracts — a large cluster of renewals in a single month represents a concentrated revenue risk.

Renewal dates are inferred from billing_cycle_anchor and subscription interval for all subscriptions. Where subscription_schedules are used, scheduled changes provide additional precision.

Note

The Renewal Wall works for all merchants regardless of whether they use subscription_schedules. cancel_at_period_end flags are reflected directly in renewal exposure.

Scenario modeling

Scenario mode lets you adjust assumed churn rate, contraction rate, or expansion rate to model upside and downside outcomes against the baseline forecast.

Quantity layer

For licensed or quantity-driven pricing, the forecast can show billed quantity impact as a supporting layer beneath the revenue projection. This helps distinguish volume-driven growth from pricing-driven growth in the forward view.

Tip

Forecasting is most reliable when SubscriptionMonitor has at least 3 months of historical ingestion data. Early projections will update and stabilize as more cohort data accumulates.